Can Woolly Worms Really Predict the Winter?

The 2009 Woolly Worm Festival takes place in Banner Elk, North Carolina on October 17, 2009 and October 18, 2009. Several other towns such as Beattyville, Kentucky and Camargo, Illinois also host a festival the third weekend in October of every year. While the festival will feature food, music, and fun, the folks from any given winter bound city or town go to the festival to find out just how bad the upcoming winter will be. They hope the fuzzy woolly worm will be able to tell them.

So the question is “can woolly worms really predict the winter?” Well, maybe. In some parts of the world, it is believed that the severity of the winter can be predicted by the intensity of the black on the Isabella tiger moth’s larvae (caterpillar). In the American Northeast, it is believed that if the woolly worm has more brown on its body than black, it will be a fair winter. If the woolly worm has more black than brown, the winter will be harsh.


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Also called the “woolly bear” in New England and the Midwestern United States, the woolly worm has a pretty good weather prediction rate. Scientists would prefer not to acknowledge it, but the woolly worm has a 80-85% accuracy rate for predicting the weather. The worm has held its record for accuracy for more than 20 years.

About the Woolly Worm

The woolly worm is actually a caterpillar or the larvae of the Isabella tiger moth. The tiger moth belongs to the arctiidae family, which has 11,000 species of moths around the world. The tiger moth is a beautiful creature with bright colors such as scarlet, yellow, orange, and white and rich hues ranging from black to beige. Equally as bright and beautiful, the woolly worm may have a burnt orange color in the middle and it may be black on both ends. Some woolly worms, however, are completely black or completely brown.

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The furry woolly worm can be spotted during the fall months in great numbers inching along the ground. While you will notice them in great numbers during the fall months, the woolly worm actually has two life cycles, so they can also be found inching around in June and July.

Woolly worms may look small, but these dazzling creatures have 13 segments and three sets of legs. They have tiny eyes, but they make their way around mostly by feeling around and touching. Once the woolly worm has found its home for the winter, it will create a natural organic antifreeze that protects the interior of its cells. Everything else will freeze, but the woolly worm will still survive. The antifreeze protects the creature in freezing temperatures that can dip as low as –90 degrees Fahrenheit. The wooly worm is also protected by shelter. It chooses its places to hide wisely. It crawls under logs, boulders, boards, rocks, and other dark places. The woolly worm will remain in its “frozen” state until May, when it will emerge as a brilliantly colored moth.

Prior to settling in for the winter, the woolly worm will survive by eating a variety of plants such as cabbage, spinach, grass, and clover. And to protect itself from predators, the woolly worm will curl up into a ball, exposing only its bristles, which can be quite irritating to the skin.

If you want to see the woolly worm in action, don’t look for them at night. Remember, worms (not caterpillars) are nocturnal. The woolly worm is very active during the day. It is not uncommon to spot them in groups of hundreds, all of them with one common goal – to find a place to hide when night falls.

Author: The Top Worm

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